|
Cluster Overview:
Expectations for Change, 2010-2020The Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources cluster changed dramatically over the course of the 20th century and continues to change today. In the 1920s, about 25 percent of all American jobs were in agriculture alone (not including natural resources and other related occupations in this cluster). Today, only about one percent of American jobs are in agriculture, and still we are able to feed our population and export food to others. This has happened because much American agriculture is now a high-tech enterprise based on sophisticated research and the sophisticated application of technology. This high tech industry is extremely productive, producing more and more each year with fewer and fewer workers. The production side of America's food and natural resources systems is becoming high tech just as agriculture has, and they too are generating more with fewer workers.
It is notable that most of the the slow growing or declining occupations in this cluster are concerned with the production of food and natural resources. "Gas Pumping Station Operators," "Farmers, Ranchers, and Agricultural Managers," and "Mine Shuttle Car Operators" are all expected to lose jobs by 2020. Employment will grow very slowly for "Logging Equipment Operators," "Agricultural Inspectors," and "Oil and Gas Roustabouts."
Agriculture-Related Occupations
The classification system used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics groups all kinds of agricultural workers into a small number of broad occupations. This list, sent in by Andy Seibel, Virginia FFA Specialist at Virginia Tech, shows the diversity of jobs that people in this field actually do. In addition, it shows hundreds of occupations in other career clusters where workers benefit from agricultural knowledge and experience . |
This shift from material production occupations toward service occupations is happening across all 16 career clusters and across the entire American economy. It is primarily the result of improved technology, which requires fewer workers to produce more goods in every industry from agriculture to manufacturing. The BLS expects this trend to continue, and consequently, employment in the Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources will steadily shift away from production and toward services.
The graphic below shows the 16 occupations in this cluster that are either growing faster or about average compared to the national growth rate of 14 percent. Note the dominance of service and the scarcity of production occupations in this top sixteen.
It is important to be aware that these projections are national. They give an informative picture of the way that the country as a whole is changing, but they don't account for the specific circumstances of Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources employment in Virginia. For example, national agriculture is dominated by large midwestern agribusiness, which plays a much smaller role in our state. Virginia has a significant number of small agricultural enterprises and is home to a strong and growing local food movement. This may counterbalance somewhat the national trend of expanding technology and declining employment in the production side of agriculture. New employment projections for Virginia and its regions will be released later in 2012 and may shed some light on this.
Projections Data: What the BLS tells us about employment
Every
two years the BLS releases new national employment projections for
over 700 different occupations. The projections include five important
pieces of information discussed in this post.
Estimated 2010 employment: The estimated number of jobs or
positions in each occupation. (This is a count of positions, not
workers; many people have two jobs).
Projected 2020 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (A count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs). Numeric Change 2010-2020 or "New Jobs:" Most occupations are expected grow by 2020 as employers create new positions or "new jobs." Percent Change 2010-2020: The percent increase or decrease in employment over the decade. This information helps us compare the rate of change across jobs of different sizes. Job Openings 2010-2020: Job opportunities arise in two ways: when employers create new jobs and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects how many people will be retiring from each occupation over the decade and combines this with the number of new jobs to predict how many "job openings" will become available. Even shrinking occupations have job openings because employers need to replace some of the people who retire with new workers. |
The national system of career clusters divides Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources into seven pathways:
- Agribusiness Systems
- Animal Systems
- Environmental Service Systems
- Food Products and Processing Systems
- Natural Resources Systems
- Plant Systems
- Power, Structural, and Technical Systems
The national career cluster system provides a crosswalk that matches the occupations analyzed by the BLS to career clusters and pathways. The BLS and career cluster systems were not designed to fit together, however, and as a result, we don't have all the information that would be ideal for analyzing career pathways. For example, the Natural Resources pathway includes 33 different occupations but Agribusiness Systems only includes two occupations, and Power Structural and Technical Systems only includes one.
All of the Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources pathways except Plant Systems are expected to grow over the next decade. Plant Systems is expected to lose jobs because of the significant declines anticipated in its largest occupations, Farmers and Agricultural Workers.
- Plant Systems is the largest pathway in 2010 with three times more jobs than any other pathway. Even though it is shrinking, it will be the largest pathway in 2020 as well. It contains two of the largest occupations in the cluster: Miscellaneous Agricultural Workers and Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers.
- Plant Systems is expected to offer the most job openings over the next decade. Even though the total number of positions in this cluster will decrease, it will still have many job openings because of the need to replace some of the workers who retire. Unlike growing pathways, however, Plant Systems will not need to replace all of the workers who retire.
- Animal Systems is expected to be the fastest growing pathway because it includes two very fast growing occupations, Veterinarians and Veterinary Technicians and Assistants.
- Related STEM occupations is a large group containing 13 different occupations, but most of these are small. The group is expected to grow by about 17 percent over the decade and add about 180,000 jobs
Pathways Employment Overview (in 1000s)
| Pathways and Number of Occupations Included | Employment 2010 | Employment 2020 | New Jobs | Percent Change | Job Openings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agribusiness Systems (2) |
13.3
|
14.0
|
0.7
|
5%
|
3.3
|
| Animal Systems (7) |
438.5
|
566.2
|
127.6
|
29%
|
217.2
|
| Environmental Service Systems (6) |
417.9
|
490.2
|
72.4
|
17%
|
210
|
| Food Products and Processing Systems (10) |
659.8
|
708.3
|
48.4
|
7%
|
238.5
|
| Natural Resources Systems (33) |
567.1
|
593.2
|
26
|
5%
|
199.9
|
| Plant Systems (10) |
2323.8
|
2262.1
|
-61.6
|
-3%
|
581.5
|
| Power, Structural, and Technical Systems (1) |
203.9
|
236.5
|
32.6
|
16%
|
107.2
|
| Total |
4624.3
|
4870.5
|
246.1
|
5%
|
1557.6
|
| Related STEM Occupations (13) |
426.1
|
496.6
|
70.5
|
17%
|
183.6
|
The BLS projects the "job openings" for each occupation that arise from the combination of new jobs and the need to replace workers who retire. In total, about 1.5 million job openings are expected in the Agriculture cluster between now and 2020. The occupations expected to have the most job openings nationwide are:
- Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers;
- Miscellaneous Agricultural Workers;
- Parts Salespersons;
- Non-farm Animal Caretakers;
- Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers.
There will continue to be job openings for Farmers and Agricultural Workers even though total employment in these occupations is falling, because many people who currently work in these fields will be retiring and making room for new workers.
The following graph shows the ten occupations expected to have the most job openings and the projected number of openings for each one.
The following graph shows the ten occupations expected to have the most job openings and the projected number of openings for each one.
Fourteen occupations in the Agriculture Cluster are expected to lose jobs over the next decade. Three of the five biggest losers are related to the pumping and servicing of petroleum and gas. The occupations expected to experience greater than 5% job loss are:
- Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers (-14%);
- Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators (-10%);
- Farmers, Ranchers and Other Agricultural Managers (-8%);
- Animal Breeders (-7.5%);
- Gas Plant Operators (-6.5%).
The tables below gives the complete picture of how occupations in Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources and related STEM occupations are expected to change between 2010 and 2020 (in 1000s).
Employment Projections (in 1000s)
| Employment 2010 | Employment 2020 | New Jobs | Percent Change | Job Openings | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agribusiness Systems Pathway | 13.3 | 14 | 0.70 | 5% | 3.3 |
| Buyers and Purchasing Agents, Farm Products | 13.0 | 13.7 | 0.70 | 6% | 3.2 |
| Farm Labor Contractors | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.00 | -1% | 0.1 |
| Animal Systems Pathway | 438.5 | 566.2 | 127.60 | 29% | 217.2 |
| Animal Scientists | 3.3 | 3.8 | 0.40 | 13% | 1.8 |
| Zoologists and Wildlife Biologists | 19.8 | 21.3 | 1.50 | 7% | 5.9 |
| Veterinarians | 61.4 | 83.4 | 22.00 | 36% | 34.2 |
| Veterinary Technologists and Technicians | 80.2 | 121.9 | 41.70 | 52% | 55.7 |
| Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers | 73.2 | 83.6 | 10.40 | 14% | 21.6 |
| Nonfarm Animal Caretakers | 189.1 | 241.5 | 52.50 | 28% | 94.4 |
| Animal Breeders | 11.5 | 10.7 | -0.90 | -8% | 3.6 |
| Environmental Service Systems Pathway | 417.9 | 490.2 | 72.40 | 17% | 210.0 |
| Environmental Science and Protection Technicians | 29.6 | 36.6 | 7.00 | 24% | 19.5 |
| Occupational Health and Safety Specialists | 58.7 | 63.7 | 5.00 | 9% | 25.7 |
| Occupational Health and Safety Technicians | 10.6 | 12.0 | 1.40 | 13% | 5.1 |
| Pest Control Workers | 68.4 | 86.2 | 17.90 | 26% | 48.5 |
| Water Treatment Plant and System Operators | 110.7 | 123.6 | 12.90 | 12% | 41.5 |
| Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors | 139.9 | 168.1 | 28.20 | 20% | 69.7 |
| Food Products and Processing Systems Pathway | 659.8 | 708.3 | 48.40 | 7% | 238.5 |
| Food Scientists and Technologists | 13.9 | 15.0 | 1.10 | 8% | 6.8 |
| First-Line Supervisors of Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Wokers | 47.0 | 46.3 | -0.70 | -2% | 13.6 |
| Agricultural Inspectors | 19.3 | 19.6 | 0.30 | 2% | 6.0 |
| Graders and Sorters, Agricultural Products | 48.2 | 48.8 | 0.60 | 1% | 12.2 |
| Butchers and Meat Cutters | 126.8 | 136.8 | 10.10 | 8 | 46.8 |
| Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers | 166.1 | 192.0 | 25.80 | 16% | 74.0 |
| Slaughterers and Meat Packers | 89.1 | 96.5 | 7.40 | 8% | 33.3 |
| Food and Tobacco Roasting, and Related Operators | 18.4 | 19.9 | 1.50 | 8% | 6.7 |
| Food Batchmakers | 98.7 | 99.4 | 0.70 | 1% | 28.2 |
| Food Cooking Machine Operators and Tenders | 32.3 | 34.0 | 1.60 | 5% | 10.9 |
| Natural Resources Systems Pathway | 567.1 | 593.2 | 26.00 | 5% | 199.9 |
| Natural Sciences Managers | 49.3 | 53.1 | 3.80 | 8% | 33.5 |
| Cartographers and Photogrammetrists | 13.8 | 16.9 | 3.10 | 22% | 6.1 |
| Geological and Petroleum Technicians | 14.4 | 16.5 | 2.10 | 15% | 7.0 |
| Forest and Conservation Technicians | 36.5 | 36.1 | -0.40 | -1% | 15.4 |
| Fish and Game Wardens | 7.6 | 7.9 | 0.40 | 5% | 2.2 |
| Fishers and Related Fishing Workers | 32.0 | 30.0 | -2.00 | -6% | 9.2 |
| Forest and Conservation Workers | 13.7 | 13.9 | 0.10 | 1% | 3.5 |
| Fallers | 9.6 | 9.9 | 0.30 | 3% | 2.6 |
| Logging Equipment Operators | 35.1 | 36.4 | 1.30 | 4% | 9.8 |
| Log Graders and Scalers | 3.8 | 4.3 | 0.50 | 13% | 1.4 |
| Logging Workers, All Other | 4.8 | 4.9 | 0.10 | 3% | 1.3 |
| Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas | 18.9 | 20.7 | 1.80 | 9% | 5.7 |
| Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas | 22.5 | 24.1 | 1.60 | 7% | 6.4 |
| Service Unit Operators, Oil, Gas, and Mining | 40.7 | 44.2 | 3.50 | 9% | 12.1 |
| Explosives Workers, Ordnance Handling Experts, and Blasters | 6.8 | 6.8 | 0.00 | 0% | 1.4 |
| Continuous Mining Machine Operators | 13.9 | 13.9 | 0.10 | 0% | 3.0 |
| Mine Cutting and Channeling Machine Operators | 7.0 | 7.1 | 0.1 | 2% | 1.6 |
| Mining Machine Operators, All Other | 3.4 | 3.4 | 0.0 | -1% | 0.7 |
| Rock Splitters, Quarry | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 12% | 1.2 |
| Roof Bolters, Mining | 5.7 | 5.8 | 0.1 | 2% | 1.3 |
| Roustabouts, Oil and Gas | 52.7 | 57.1 | 4.4 | 8% | 15.5 |
| Helpers--Extraction Workers | 24.6 | 26.0 | 1.4 | 6% | 6.5 |
| Extraction Workers, All Other | 7.5 | 7.3 | -0.2 | -3% | 1.6 |
| Commercial Divers | 3.8 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 16% | 1.3 |
| Patternmakers, Wood | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 4% | 0.4 |
| Sawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Wood | 39.0 | 48.6 | 9.6 | 25% | 18.1 |
| Gas Plant Operators | 13.7 | 12.8 | -0.9 | -7% | 4.5 |
| Petroleum Pump System Operators, and Related | 44.2 | 38.0 | -6.2 | -14% | 14.4 |
| Loading Machine Operators, Underground Mining | 3.9 | 3.8 | -0.1 | -2% | 1.2 |
| Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators | 4.5 | 4.1 | -0.5 | -10% | 1.3 |
| Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers | 10.8 | 11.2 | 0.4 | 4% | 3.6 |
| Wellhead Pumpers | 15.1 | 15.8 | 0.7 | 5% | 5.2 |
| Mine Shuttle Car Operators | 3.1 | 2.9 | -0.2 | -6% | 0.9 |
| Plant Systems Pathway | 2,323.8 | 2,262.1 | -61.6 | -3% | 581.5 |
| Miscellaneous Agricultural Workers | 746.4 | 727.3 | -19.1 | -3% | 227.4 |
| Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers | 1,202.5 | 1,106.4 | -96.1 | -8% | 234.5 |
| Soil and Plant Scientists | 16.3 | 18.3 | 2.0 | 12% | 8.6 |
| Foresters | 11.5 | 12.0 | 0.5 | 5% | 1.9 |
| Farm and Home Management Advisors | 13.0 | 15.1 | 2.2 | 17% | 5.0 |
| First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping and Related Workers | 202.9 | 233.6 | 30.7 | 15% | 60.1 |
| Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation | 29.5 | 32.5 | 3.0 | 10% | 8.2 |
| Tree Trimmers and Pruners | 50.6 | 59.7 | 9.1 | 18% | 18.0 |
| Grounds Maintenance Workers, All Other | 18.2 | 19.9 | 1.7 | 10% | 4.9 |
| Farm Equipment Mechanics and Service Technicians | 32.9 | 37.3 | 4.4 | 13% | 12.9 |
| Power Structural and Technical Systems Pathway | 203.9 | 236.5 | 32.6 | 16% | 107.2 |
| Parts Salespersons | 203.9 | 236.5 | 32.6 | 16% | 107.2 |
| Related STEM Occupations | 426.1 | 496.6 | 70.5 | 0% | 183.6 |
| Agricultural Engineers | 2.7 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 9% | 0.8 |
| Environmental Engineers | 51.4 | 62.7 | 11.3 | 22% | 22.6 |
| Mining and Geological Engineers, Including Mining Safety | 6.4 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 10% | 2.0 |
| Petroleum Engineers | 30.2 | 35.3 | 5.1 | 17% | 11.8 |
| Environmental Engineering Technicians | 18.8 | 23.3 | 4.5 | 24% | 8.2 |
| Biochemists and Biophysicists | 25.1 | 32.9 | 7.8 | 31% | 13.4 |
| Biological Scientists, All Other | 35.8 | 38.0 | 2.2 | 6% | 10.3 |
| Conservation Scientists | 23.4 | 24.6 | 1.2 | 5% | 4.0 |
| Environmental Scientists and Specialists, Including Health | 89.4 | 106.1 | 16.7 | 19% | 43.2 |
| Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers | 33.8 | 40.9 | 7.1 | 21% | 17.1 |
| Hydrologists | 7.6 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 18% | 3.6 |
| Agricultural and Food Science Technicians | 21.3 | 22.8 | 1.5 | 7% | 8.7 |
| Biological Technicians | 80.2 | 91.1 | 10.9 | 14% | 37.9 |
