In my first overview article about the new employment projections for career clusters, I used the existing crosswalk without any modifications. For this much more detailed discussion, however, I think it is important to try to show what the employment picture for Business Management and Administration might look like after the new crosswalk is complete. I will also include some information on how the cluster looks with the original set of occupations matched to it, just to maintain continuity with my earlier articles and other important pieces that use the original crosswalk, particularly the NASDCTEc-sponsored Career Clusters research.
The original Business Management and Administration cluster included six pathways:
- Administrative and Information Support (22)
- Business Analysis (3)
- Business Financial Management and Accounting (4)
- Human Resources (7)
- Management (10)
- Marketing (6)
- General Management
- Business Information Management
- Human Resources Management
- Operations Management
- Administrative Support
Under the new cluster system that omits marketing and financial occupations, Business Management and Administration will be a smaller cluster. It will employ close to 17 million people in 2010 and is expected to grow to about 18.7 million by 2020. Under this new arrangement, it will be the third largest cluster, falling behind Hospitality and Tourism with almost 18 million workers in 2010 and Marketing with almost 20 million.
Cluster Overview: Expectations for Change, 2010-2020Two trends seem to be prevailing in the Business Management and Administration cluster regardless of whether the Finance and Marketing pathways are included with the cluster or not.
First, improvements in technology and in data management and processing systems are expected to continue cutting demand for the relatively low skilled occupations. The total number of jobs for Telephone Operators, Correspondence Clerks, Word Processors, Computer Operators, Data Entry Keyers, and File Clerks is expected to keep falling through 2020, just as it has for the last few decades. The number of jobs for Stock Clerks and New Accounts Clerks is predicted to remain almost unchanged, but could well begin to fall by the end of the decade.
Second, demand is expected to remain strong for occupations that involve substantial interaction with people and significant professional knowledge — skills that are not easy to automate. Employment opportunities for Medical Secretaries, Market Research Analysts, Training and Development Specialists, and Receptionists are expected to grow much more rapidly than the national average. But the capacity of computer systems to handle complex interactions is increasing all the time, making workers in these occupations more efficient with every upgrade. This trend will probably continue to hold back job growth even among high skilled occupations and those that require complex personal interactions.
The table below shows the fastest growing occupations placed into Business Management and Administration according to the original cluster system. Under the new system the tenth fastest growing occupation, Accountants and Auditors, will be moved from this cluster to Finance.
Projections Data: What the BLS tells us about employment
Every two years the BLS releases new national employment projections for over 700 different occupations. The projections include five important pieces of information discussed in this post.
Estimated 2010 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (This is a count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Projected 2020 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (A count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Numeric Change 2010-2020 or "New Jobs:" Most occupations are expected grow by 2020 as employers create new positions or "new jobs."
Percent Change 2010-2020: The percent increase or decrease in employment over the decade. This information helps us compare the rate of change across jobs of different sizes.
Job Openings 2010-2020: Job opportunities arise in two ways: when employers create new jobs and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects how many people will be retiring from each occupation over the decade and combines this with the number of new jobs to predict how many "job openings" will become available. Even shrinking occupations have job openings because employers need to replace some of the people who retire with new workers.
The original crosswalk for Business Management and Administration included six pathways. I will discuss all of them here, even though the Marketing and Finance pathways have been moved under the new cluster system.
All six Business Management and Administration pathways are expected to grow over the next decade.
- Administrative and Information Support is by far the largest pathway. It includes 22 occupations and employed over 10 million workers in 2010. It is expected to add the most jobs over the next decade, over a million by 2020. However, this pathway was particularly hard hit by recession and many of these new jobs are replacements for those lost. This cluster also included many shrinking, low skill occupations including Word Processors, Computer Operators, Data Entry Keyers, and File Clerks.
- Business Analysis is the smallest pathway, including just three occupations, and estimated to employ fewer than a million workers in 2010. Although small, it is the fastest growing pathway, expected to increase by about 20 percent, largely because of the fast growing demand for Management Analysts.
- Management is the slowest growing pathway, expected to increase by only about 8 percent.
- Human Resources Management is one of the fastest growing pathways. Increasing regulatory requirements and increasing efforts to manage health care costs and coverage mean demand for these workers is rising.
- Business Financial Management and Accounting is a large pathway, employing close to four million workers. Accountants and Auditors and Bookkeepers are the largest occupations in the pathway, employing almost three million workers between them. Improvements in accounting and record keeping software have made both of these occupations more efficient, but the complexity of the modern business world keeps them both in demand.
- The Marketing pathway includes six occupations, including Art Directors, Driver/Sales Workers, sales and marketing managers and agents, and Market Research Specialists. These are not a very coherent group and will probably be redistributed among different pathways when they are moved to the Marketing cluster.
Pathways Employment Overview (in 1000s)
|Pathways and Number of Occupations Included||Employment|
|Administrative and Information Support (22)||10,144.5||11,203.7||1,059.2||10%||3,222.4|
|Business Analysis (3)||845.5||1,018.5||173.1||21%||323.9|
|Business Financial Management and Accounting (4)||3,829.3||4,352.7||523.3||14%||1,128.4|
|Human Resources Management (7)||1,059.7||1,249.5||189.9||18%||396.4|
|All other (1)||1,064.2||1,187.3||123.1||12%||327.2|
|Management occupations not included in the Business Management and Administration cluster (23)||4,895.0||5,197.5||302.5||6%||334.6|
Job Openings and New Jobs
Job opportunities arise when employers create new positions and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects the "job openings" for each occupation that arise from the combination of new jobs and replacements.
Among the occupations expected to add the most new jobs are: Receptionists and Information Clerks, Medical Secretaries, Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants, and Secretaries and Administrative Assistants. The occupations losing jobs are heavily impacted by improving computer systems and software: Data Entry Keyers, Word Processors and Typists, File Clerks, Computer Operators, Telephone Operators, and Correspondence Clerks.
All of occupations in this cluster are expected to have some job openings, even those that are shrinking or adding only a few new jobs. Occupations like Word Processors and File Clerks will continue to have job openings even though total employment is falling because employers will want to replace at least some of the workers who retire.
All of the pathways in Business Management and Administration are expected to add new jobs and to have many job openings over the next decade.
- The largest pathway, Administrative and Information Support, is expected to add over a million new jobs; however, many of these will merely be making up for jobs lost in the recession. It is also expected to also offer three million job openings, three times more than any other pathway. Two thirds of these openings will arise from the need to replace retirees.
- Business Analysis is the smallest pathway, and is expected to offer about 170,000 new jobs and 320,000 job openings.
- Human Resources management is one of the fastest growing pathways, but it is not very large. Fewer than 200,000 new jobs are expected and about 400,000 job openings.
- Management is a small pathway, expected to add about 300,000 new jobs. Because older workers nearing retirement age dominate these jobs, almost three quarters of job openings will come from the need to replace retirees.
- Business Financial Management and Accounting is a large pathway expected to offer about half a million new jobs and a million job openings.
- The Marketing pathway is expected to offer about 250,000 new jobs and over 600,000 job openings.
The following table gives a complete picture of how occupations in the Business, Management, and Administration cluster are changing between 2010-2020 (in 1000s).
Employment Projections (in 1000s)
|Pathways and Occupations Included||Employment 2010||Employment 2020||New Jobs||Percent Change||Job Openings|
|Administrative and Information Support Pathway||10,144.5||11,203.7||1,059.2||10%||3,222.4|
|Communications Equipment Operators, All Other||3.0||3.1||0.1||4%||0.9|
|Word Processors and Typists||115.3||102.1||-13.2||-12%||6.7|
|New Accounts Clerks||68.0||69.4||1.4||2%||20.4|
|Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal Service||126.3||141.6||15.2||12%||39.6|
|Data Entry Keyers||234.7||218.8||-15.9||-7%||41.2|
|Couriers and Messengers||116.2||130.8||14.6||13%||43.0|
|Information and Record Clerks, All Other||220.6||222.7||2.1||1%||63.9|
|Library Assistants, Clerical||116.1||128.0||11.9||10%||64.1|
|Office and Administrative Support Workers, All Other||293.6||330.1||36.5||12%||98.5|
|Public Relations Specialists||258.1||316.2||58.2||23%||127.2|
|Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants||1,236.1||1,392.1||156.0||13%||321.8|
|Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive||2,032.2||2,150.8||118.5||6%||391.0|
|Stock Clerks and Order Fillers||1,787.4||1,808.3||20.9||1%||465.0|
|Receptionists and Information Clerks||1,048.5||1,297.0||248.5||24%||565.6|
|First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers||1,424.4||1,627.8||203.4||14%||584.4|
|Business Analysis Pathway||845.5||1,018.5||173.1||20%||323.9|
|Operations Research Analysts||64.6||74.0||9.4||15%||30.0|
|Business Financial Management and Accounting Pathway||3,829.3||4,352.7||523.3||14%||1,128.4|
|Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks||187.0||214.3||27.3||15%||65.7|
|Accountants and Auditors||1,216.9||1,407.6||190.7||16%||452.1|
|Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks||1,898.3||2,157.4||259.0||14%||467.8|
|Human Resources Management Pathway||1,059.7||1,249.5||189.9||18%||396.4|
|Compensation and Benefits Managers||31.8||32.7||0.9||3%||8.7|
|Training and Development Managers||29.8||34.1||4.3||15%||11.6|
|Compensation, Benefits, and Job Analysis Specialists||109.5||115.0||5.5||5%||24.0|
|Human Resources Managers||71.8||81.0||9.3||13%||26.9|
|Human Resources Assistants, Except Payroll and Timekeeping||156.9||174.5||17.6||11%||61.6|
|Training and Development Specialists||217.7||279.3||61.6||28%||98.3|
|Human Resources, Training, and Labor Relations Specialists, All Other||442.2||532.9||90.7||21%||165.3|
|Emergency Management Directors||12.1||13.7||1.6||13%||3.9|
|Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Performers, and Athletes||24.1||27.5||3.4||14%||8.0|
|Advertising and Promotions Managers||38.7||43.8||5.2||13%||16.2|
|Public Relations and Fundraising Managers||61.9||72.1||10.2||16%||27.9|
|Administrative Services Managers||254.3||291.2||36.9||15%||99.8|
|Medical and Health Services Managers||303.0||371.0||68.0||22%||141.9|
|Managers, All Other||828.1||893.5||65.4||8%||249.4|
|General and Operations Managers||1,767.1||1,848.6||81.6||5%||410.1|
|Advertising Sales Agents||160.4||181.3||20.9||13%||69.9|
|Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists||282.7||399.3||116.6||41%||191.8|
|Business Operations Specialists, All Other||1,064.2||1,187.3||123.1||12%||327.2|
|Management occupations not included in the Business Management and Administration cluster (23)||4,895.0||5,197.5||302.5||6%||334.6|
|Natural Sciences Managers||49.3||53.1||3.8||8%||2.4|
|Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers||1,202.5||1,106.4||-96.1||-8%||78.9|
|Compensation and Benefits Managers||31.8||32.7||0.9||3%||2.7|
|Human Resources Managers||71.8||81.0||9.3||13%||2.7|
|Training and Development Managers||29.8||34.1||4.3||15%||2.7|
|Education Administrators, Preschool and Childcare Center/Program||63.6||79.5||15.8||25%||5.2|
|Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School||236.1||259.3||23.2||10%||6.1|
|Education Administrators, Postsecondary||146.2||174.0||27.8||19%||4.9|
|Education Administrators, All Other||32.5||36.9||4.4||14%||5.7|
|Postmasters and Mail Superintendents||24.5||17.7||-6.8||-28%||—|
|Food Service Managers||320.6||310.0||-10.6||-3%||41.7|
|Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers||303.9||322.2||18.4||6%||50.5|
|Social and Community Service Managers||134.1||169.9||35.8||27%||4.9|
|Computer and Information Systems Managers||307.9||363.7||55.8||18%||2.7|
|Industrial Production Managers||150.3||164.0||13.7||9%||2.8|
|Architectural and Engineering Managers||176.8||192.0||15.2||9%||—|
|Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers||98.6||108.5||9.9||10%||6.2|