Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Employment Projections for Business Management and Administration, 2010-2020

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Writing about occupation change in the Business Management and Administration  career cluster is particularly difficult this year because the cluster definition and pathways have been dramatically revised, but the "crosswalk" that matches Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) occupation data to the cluster and its pathways has not. A new crosswalk is underway and might be available later this year.

In my first overview article about the new employment projections for career clusters, I used the existing crosswalk without any modifications. For this much more detailed discussion, however, I think it is important to try to show what the employment picture for Business Management and Administration might look like after the new crosswalk is complete. I will also include some information on how the cluster looks with the original set of occupations matched to it, just to maintain continuity with my earlier articles and other important pieces that use the original crosswalk, particularly the NASDCTEc-sponsored Career Clusters research.

The original Business Management and Administration cluster included six pathways:
  • Administrative and Information Support (22)
  • Business Analysis (3) 
  • Business Financial Management and Accounting (4)
  • Human Resources (7)
  • Management (10)
  • Marketing (6)
In the new system, occupations from the Business Financial Management and Accounting pathway have been moved to the Finance cluster and Marketing occupations have been moved to the Marketing cluster. The remaining occupations are divided among five pathways:
  • General Management
  • Business Information Management
  • Human Resources Management
  • Operations Management
  • Administrative Support
Under the original cluster system Business Management and Administration, including marketing and financial occupations, is the largest of all 16 career clusters. It employed about 22 million people nationwide in 2010, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that it will add over 2.6 million new jobs by 2020. Employment opportunities in this cluster are expected to grow by about 12 percent by 2020, which is about average compared to other clusters and the national average of 14%.

Under the new cluster system that omits marketing and financial occupations, Business Management and Administration will be a smaller cluster. It will employ close to 17 million people in 2010 and is expected to grow to about 18.7 million by 2020. Under this new arrangement, it will be the third largest cluster, falling behind Hospitality and Tourism with almost 18 million workers in 2010 and Marketing with almost 20 million.

Cluster Overview: Expectations for Change, 2010-2020
Two trends seem to be prevailing in the Business Management and Administration cluster regardless of whether the Finance and Marketing pathways are included with the cluster or not.

First, improvements in technology and in data management and processing systems are expected to continue cutting demand for the relatively low skilled occupations. The total number of jobs for Telephone Operators, Correspondence Clerks, Word Processors, Computer Operators, Data Entry Keyers, and File Clerks is expected to keep falling through 2020, just as it has for the last few decades. The number of jobs for Stock Clerks and New Accounts Clerks is predicted to remain almost unchanged, but could well begin to fall by the end of the decade.

Second, demand is expected to remain strong for occupations that involve substantial interaction with people and significant professional knowledge — skills that are not easy to automate. Employment opportunities for Medical Secretaries, Market Research Analysts, Training and Development Specialists, and Receptionists are expected to grow much more rapidly than the national average. But the capacity of computer systems to handle complex interactions is increasing all the time, making workers in these occupations more efficient with every upgrade. This trend will probably continue to hold back job growth even among high skilled occupations and those that require complex personal interactions.

The table below shows the fastest growing occupations placed into Business Management and Administration according to the original cluster system. Under the new system the tenth fastest growing occupation, Accountants and Auditors, will be moved from this cluster to Finance.

Projections Data: What the BLS tells us about employment
Every two years the BLS releases new national employment projections for over 700 different occupations. The projections include five important pieces of information discussed in this post.
Estimated 2010 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (This is a count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Projected 2020 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (A count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Numeric Change 2010-2020 or "New Jobs:" Most occupations are expected grow by 2020 as employers  create new positions or "new jobs."
Percent Change 2010-2020: The percent increase or decrease in employment over the decade. This information helps us compare the rate of change across jobs of different sizes.
Job Openings 2010-2020: Job opportunities arise in two ways: when employers create new jobs and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects how many people will be retiring from each occupation over the decade and combines this with the number of new jobs to predict how many "job openings" will become available. Even shrinking occupations have job openings because employers  need to replace some of the people who retire with new workers.
Pathways Overview
The original crosswalk for Business Management and Administration included six pathways. I will discuss all of them here, even though the Marketing and Finance pathways have been moved under the new cluster system.
    I also want to comment further on "management" occupations. The original crosswalk includes ten occupations in the management pathway. Twenty-three other management occupations are matched with different career clusters. For interest's sake, I included all management pathways in my analysis, so readers can see the trends taking place across the entire range of management jobs.

    All six Business Management and Administration pathways are expected to grow over the next decade.
    • Administrative and Information Support is by far the largest pathway. It includes 22 occupations and employed over 10 million workers in 2010. It is expected to add the most jobs over the next decade, over a million by 2020. However, this pathway was particularly hard hit by recession and many of these new jobs are replacements for those lost. This cluster also included many shrinking, low skill occupations including Word Processors, Computer Operators, Data Entry Keyers, and File Clerks.
    • Business Analysis is the smallest pathway, including just three occupations, and estimated to employ fewer than a million workers in 2010.  Although small, it is the fastest growing pathway, expected to increase by about 20 percent, largely because of the fast growing demand for Management Analysts.
    • Management is the slowest growing pathway, expected to increase by only about 8 percent.
    • Human Resources Management is one of the fastest growing pathways. Increasing regulatory requirements and increasing efforts to manage health care costs and coverage mean demand for these workers is rising.
    • Business Financial Management and Accounting is a large pathway, employing close to four million workers. Accountants and Auditors and Bookkeepers are the largest occupations in the pathway, employing almost three million workers between them. Improvements in accounting and record keeping software have made both of these occupations more efficient, but the complexity of the modern business world keeps them both in demand.
    • The Marketing pathway includes six occupations, including Art Directors, Driver/Sales Workers, sales and marketing managers and agents, and Market Research Specialists. These are not a very coherent group and will probably be redistributed among different pathways when they are moved to the Marketing cluster.
    Pathways Employment Overview (in 1000s)

    Pathways and Number of Occupations IncludedEmployment
    Administrative and Information Support (22) 10,144.5 11,203.7 1,059.2 10%3,222.4
    Business Analysis (3)845.5 1,018.5 173.1 21%323.9
    Business Financial Management and Accounting (4) 3,829.3 4,352.7 523.3 14%1,128.4
    Human Resources Management (7)1,059.7 1,249.5 189.9 18%396.4
    Management (10)3,727.2 4,019.6 292.6 8%1,094.3
    Marketing (10)1,443.9 1,694.4 250.5 17%624.6
    All other (1)1,064.2 1,187.3 123.1 12%327.2
    Total22,114.3 24,725.7 2,611.7 12%7,117.2
    Management occupations not included in the Business Management and Administration cluster (23)4,895.05,197.5302.56%334.6

    Job Openings and New Jobs
    Job opportunities arise when employers create new positions and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects the "job openings" for each occupation that arise from the combination of new jobs and replacements.

    Among the occupations expected to add the most new jobs are: Receptionists and Information Clerks, Medical Secretaries, Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants, and Secretaries and Administrative Assistants. The occupations losing jobs are heavily impacted by improving computer systems and software: Data Entry Keyers, Word Processors and Typists, File Clerks, Computer Operators, Telephone Operators, and Correspondence Clerks.

    All of occupations in this cluster are expected to have some job openings, even those that are shrinking or adding only a few new jobs. Occupations like Word Processors and File Clerks will continue to have job openings even though total employment is falling because employers will want to replace at least some of the workers who retire.

    All of the pathways in Business Management and Administration are expected to add new jobs and to have many job openings over the next decade.
    • The largest pathway, Administrative and Information Support, is expected to add over a million new jobs; however, many of these will merely be making up for jobs lost in the recession. It is also expected to also offer three million job openings, three times more than any other pathway. Two thirds of these openings will arise from the need to replace retirees.
    • Business Analysis is the smallest pathway, and is expected to offer about 170,000 new jobs and 320,000 job openings.
    • Human Resources management is one of the fastest growing pathways, but it is not very large. Fewer than 200,000 new jobs are expected and about 400,000 job openings.
    • Management is a small pathway, expected to add about 300,000 new jobs. Because older workers nearing retirement age dominate these jobs, almost three quarters of job openings will come from the need to replace retirees.
    • Business Financial Management and Accounting is a large pathway expected to offer about half a million new jobs and a million job openings.
    • The Marketing pathway is expected to offer about 250,000 new jobs and over 600,000 job openings.

    Complete Listing
    The following table gives a complete picture of how occupations in the Business, Management, and Administration cluster are changing between 2010-2020 (in 1000s).

    Employment Projections (in 1000s)

    Pathways and Occupations IncludedEmployment 2010Employment 2020New JobsPercent ChangeJob Openings
    Administrative and Information Support Pathway10,144.511,203.71,059.210%3,222.4
    Communications Equipment Operators, All Other3.03.10.14%0.9
    Correspondence Clerks10.29.0-1.2-12%2.9
    Telephone Operators18.515.4-3.1-17%5.0
    Court Reporters22.025.13.114%6.4
    Word Processors and Typists115.3102.1-13.2-12%6.7
    Computer Operators86.478.9-7.4-9%8.3
    New Accounts Clerks68.069.41.42%20.4
    Legal Secretaries233.2241.48.24%39.4
    Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal Service126.3141.615.212%39.6
    Data Entry Keyers234.7218.8-15.9-7%41.2
    Couriers and Messengers116.2130.814.613%43.0
    File Clerks185.0176.2-8.8-5%48.7
    Information and Record Clerks, All Other220.6222.72.11%63.9
    Library Assistants, Clerical116.1128.011.910%64.1
    Office and Administrative Support Workers, All Other293.6330.136.512%98.5
    Public Relations Specialists258.1316.258.223%127.2
    Medical Secretaries508.7718.9210.241%278.4
    Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants1,236.11,392.1156.013%321.8
    Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive2,032.22,150.8118.56%391.0
    Stock Clerks and Order Fillers1,787.41,808.320.91%465.0
    Receptionists and Information Clerks1,048.51,297.0248.524%565.6
    First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers1,424.41,627.8203.414%584.4
    Business Analysis Pathway845.51,018.5173.120%323.9
    Budget Analysts62.168.56.510%19.6
    Operations Research Analysts64.674.09.415%30.0
    Management Analysts718.8876.0157.222%274.3
    Business Financial Management and Accounting Pathway3,829.34,352.7523.314%1,128.4
    Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks187.0214.327.315%65.7
    Financial Managers527.1573.446.39%142.8
    Accountants and Auditors1,216.91,407.6190.716%452.1
    Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks1,898.32,157.4259.014%467.8
    Human Resources Management Pathway1,059.71,249.5189.918%396.4
    Compensation and Benefits Managers31.832.70.93%8.7
    Training and Development Managers29.834.14.315%11.6
    Compensation, Benefits, and Job Analysis Specialists109.5115.05.55%24.0
    Human Resources Managers71.881.09.313%26.9
    Human Resources Assistants, Except Payroll and Timekeeping156.9174.517.611%61.6
    Training and Development Specialists217.7279.361.628%98.3
    Human Resources, Training, and Labor Relations Specialists, All Other442.2532.990.721%165.3
    Management Pathway3,727.24,019.6292.68%1,094.3
    Emergency Management Directors12.113.71.613%3.9
    Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Performers, and Athletes24.127.53.414%8.0
    Advertising and Promotions Managers38.743.85.213%16.2
    Purchasing Managers68.072.94.97%25.6
    Public Relations and Fundraising Managers61.972.110.216%27.9
    Administrative Services Managers254.3291.236.915%99.8
    Chief Executives369.9385.315.44%111.5
    Medical and Health Services Managers303.0371.068.022%141.9
    Managers, All Other828.1893.565.48%249.4
    General and Operations Managers1,767.11,848.681.65%410.1
    Marketing Pathway1,443.91,694.4250.517%624.6
    Art Directors73.980.66.79%24.3
    Advertising Sales Agents160.4181.320.913%69.9
    Marketing Managers178.2202.424.214%76.0
    Driver/Sales Workers406.6448.542.010%122.9
    Sales Managers342.1382.340.112%139.7
    Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists282.7399.3116.641%191.8
    All other1,064.21,187.3123.112%327.2
    Business Operations Specialists, All Other1,064.21,187.3123.112%327.2
    Management occupations not included in the Business Management and Administration cluster (23)4,895.05,197.5302.56%334.6
    Natural Sciences Managers49.353.13.88%2.4
    Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers1,202.51,106.4-96.1-8%78.9
    Construction Managers523.1609.686.617%63.8
    Financial Managers527.1573.446.39%5.0
    Compensation and Benefits Managers31.832.70.93%2.7
    Human Resources Managers71.881.09.313%2.7
    Training and Development Managers29.834.14.315%2.7
    Sales Managers342.1382.340.112%5.6
    Education Administrators, Preschool and Childcare Center/Program63.679.515.825%5.2
    Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School236.1259.323.210%6.1
    Education Administrators, Postsecondary146.2174.027.819%4.9
    Education Administrators, All Other32.536.94.414%5.7
    Postmasters and Mail Superintendents24.517.7-6.8-28%
    Lodging Managers51.455.74.38%40.1
    Gaming Managers3.33.60.412%
    Food Service Managers320.6310.0-10.6-3%41.7
    Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers303.9322.218.46%50.5
    Social and Community Service Managers134.1169.935.827%4.9
    Computer and Information Systems Managers307.9363.755.818%2.7
    Industrial Production Managers150.3164.013.79%2.8
    Architectural and Engineering Managers176.8192.015.29%
    Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers98.6108.59.910%6.2