Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Employment Projections for Education and Training, 2010-2020

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that the Education and Training career cluster will add about 1.5 million new jobs nationwide between 2010 and 2020. The cluster had about 10 million workers in 2010 and is expected to grow to over 11.5 million.  Overall, this cluster is expected to have an employment growth rate of almost 16 percent, which is about average compared to other clusters and the national average of 14%.

Cluster Overview: Expectations for Change, 2010-2020
Employment in the Education and Training cluster is driven primarily by school enrollments. Enrollment in elementary and secondary schools tends to follow the general rate of population growth for children. Enrollment in postsecondary institutions is increasing faster than population growth because more high school graduates attend college and more members of the workforce seek additional education. Most education, training, and library jobs are in public education, but the BLS expects that growth will be faster in private schools, colleges, universities, and professional schools.

Jobs for secondary school teachers -- in CTE,  special education, and the regular classroom -- are expected to grow slowly, well below the national average rate of growth because the number of children in this age group is to expected grow slowly. The demand for middle, elementary, and preschool teachers is expected to be higher. Coaches and Scouts have the highest predicted growth rate.

Pathways Overview
Projections Data: What the BLS tells us about employment
Every two years the BLS releases new national employment projections for over 700 different occupations. The projections include five important pieces of information discussed in this post.
Estimated 2010 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (This is a count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Projected 2020 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (A count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Numeric Change 2010-2020 or "New Jobs:" Most occupations are expected grow by 2020 as employers  create new positions or "new jobs."
Percent Change 2010-2020: The percent increase or decrease in employment over the decade. This information helps us compare the rate of change across jobs of different sizes.
Job Openings 2010-2020: Job opportunities arise in two ways: when employers create new jobs and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects how many people will be retiring from each occupation over the decade and combines this with the number of new jobs to predict how many "job openings" will become available. Even shrinking occupations have job openings because employers  need to replace some of the people who retire with new workers.
The national system of career clusters divides Education and Training into three pathways: Administration and Administrative Support, Professional Support Services, and Teaching/Training. Only 28 of the occupations tracked by the BLS fall into the Education and Training cluster, most of these in the Teaching and Training pathway.
  • Teaching and Training is by far the largest pathway in 2010 and will remain the largest in 2020.  In 2010, Teaching and Training occupations accounted for about 85% of total employment in the Education and Training cluster and will still account for almost exactly 85% of employment in 2020.  
  • The vast majority — 84 percent — of the new jobs projected for the Education and Training cluster will be in Teaching and Training. This pathway is expected to add 1.35 million jobs in the next decade.  
  • Two museum occupations, Archivists and Curators, are included in the Teaching and Training pathway, even though teaching and training are not the main functions of either occupation. Fortunately, these occupations are small and don't distort the pathway significantly.
  • In the Administration and Administrative Services pathway growth rates are about average compared to other categories
  • Professional Support Services includes slow growing library occupations and fast growing counseling occupations.

Pathways Employment Overview (in 1000s)
Pathways and Number of Occupations
Administration and Administrative Support (5) 618.1 716.6 98.5 16%264.3
Professional Support Service (5)715.6 824.8 109.2 15%309.8
Teaching/Training (17)8,627.1 9,982.5 1,355.6 16%3,218.8
All other (1)112.3 126.7 14.4 13%39.2
Grand Total10,073.1 11,650.6 1,577.7 16%3,832.1

Job Openings and New Jobs
Job opportunities arise when employers create new positions and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects the "job openings" for each occupation that arise from the combination of new jobs and the need to replace workers who retire.

Most of the job creation that will happen over the next decade in the Education and Training cluster will be in Teaching and Training.  The following occupations are predicted to add the most new jobs by 2020:
  • Postsecondary Teachers (305,700)
  • Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education (248,800)
  • Teacher Assistants (191,100)
  • Teachers and Instructors, All Other (116,000), and 
  • Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education (113,600).
Education and Training is projected to have around 3.8 million job openings resulting from new growth and retirement or replacement.
  • Teaching and Training will have about 3.2 million job openings between now and 2020.  This accounts for about 84% of all job openings in this cluster.  
  • Support Services is expected to have the second highest number of job openings. But since it is a much smaller pathway, there will be many fewer openings here than in Teaching and Training, just over 300,000 between 2010 and 2020.
  • Administration and Administrative Support is expected to have around 264,000 job openings between 2010 and 2020.
  • The occupations expected to have the most job openings over the next decade are Preschool Teachers; Coaches and Scouts; Educational, Guidance, School, and Vocational Counselors; and Special Education Teachers, PreK-Elementry.  
[This graphic replaced a previous, incorrect version, 06/12]

Complete Listing
The table below gives the complete picture of how occupations in Education and Training are expected to change between 2010 and 2020.

Employment Projections (in 1000s)

Pathways and Occupations IncludedEmployment 2010Employment 2020New JobsPercent ChangeJob Openings
Administration and Administrative Support Pathway618.1716.698.516%264.3
Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School236.1259.323.210%89.7
Education Administrators, All Other32.536.94.414%13.6
Education Administrators, Postsecondary146.2174.027.819%69.1
Instructional Coordinators139.7166.927.320%58.1
Education Administrators, Preschool and Childcare Center/Program63.679.515.825%33.8
Support Services Pathway715.6824.8109.215%309.8
Library Technicians115.4125.610.29%59.5
Audio-Visual and Multimedia Collections Specialists8.49.51.113%2.9
Educational, Guidance, School, and Vocational Counselors281.4334.853.419%113.7
Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists154.3188.033.722%82.3
Teaching/Training Pathway8,627.19,982.51,355.616%3,218.8
Career/Technical Education Teachers, Secondary School88.689.61.01%25.2
Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education1,037.61,109.571.97%355.6
Special Education Teachers, Secondary School138.7148.810.17%51.1
Career/Technical Education Teachers, Middle School14.415.71.39%4.5
Teachers and Instructors, All Other880.5996.6116.013%250.7
Adult Basic and Secondary Education and Literacy Teachers and Instructors86.999.612.715%26.0
Teacher Assistants1,288.31,479.3191.115%481.6
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education1,476.51,725.3248.817%573.2
Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education641.7750.0108.317%249.3
Postsecondary Teachers1,756.02,061.7305.717%586.1
Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education179.2211.932.718%79.3
Special Education Teachers, Middle School98.1117.919.920%48.8
Special Education Teachers, Preschool, Kindergarten, and Elementary School222.8270.247.421%113.3
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education456.8570.4113.625%232.4
Coaches and Scouts242.9314.371.429%133.0
All other112.3126.714.413%39.2
Education, Training, and Library Workers, All Other112.3126.714.413%39.2