Monday, April 23, 2012

Employment Projections for Hospitality and Tourism, 2010-2020

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The Hospitality and Tourism career cluster is projected to experience moderate growth between 2010 and 2020. According to estimates by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), about 17.8 million people were employed in Hospitality and Tourism occupations in 2010, and employment is expected to grow to around 19.6 million by 2020. A portion of this growth will be making up for employment lost during the recession when the leisure and hospitality industry was particularly hard hit. The overall growth rate for the cluster is projected to be about average compared to other clusters at 10%.

Cluster Overview: Expectations for Change, 2010-2020
The Hospitality and Tourism cluster is very vulnerable to downturns in the economy. Restaurants, hotels, and leisure experiences are luxuries for many individuals and businesses and one of the first expenses to be cut when times are hard. Employment in the cluster fell significantly in the last recession, though it seems to have begun recovering, and the BLS forecasts that it will see growth across the decade. Nonetheless, those working in the field should be aware that it will be one of the first to experience cutbacks in the next inevitable recession.

This cluster includes large numbers of relatively low skilled, hands-on occupations. At the moment these occupations do not seem to be as vulnerable to changing technology as low skilled occupations in other clusters. Jobs for File Clerks and Bank Tellers, for example, are disappearing because people store files electronically and do banking on the internet, but technology cannot replace Housekeepers, Wait Staff, or Food Preparation Workers, at least not during the next decade.

Even though it is not dramatically affecting employment numbers in these service occupations, technology is making tremendous inroads in Hospitality and Tourism in other ways. It is redefining the kinds of hotel, restaurant, and travel experiences that customers want and the way that these things are marketed. For example, customers today expect internet and business technology services in every hotel and they make booking decisions based on social media not old-style print advertising. Tomorrow's customers will be influenced by new technology that we are not even familiar with today. Those who are entering hospitality management careers will have to be fully conversant with current technology and the possibilities for technological change in order to meet future customer demands. Additionally computerization is reducing opportunities for hotel desk service workers. More interactions with customers can take place online and through kiosks, and as this change takes place fewer front desk workers will be needed.

Projections Data: What the BLS tells us about employment
Every two years the BLS releases new national employment projections for over 700 different occupations. The projections include five important pieces of information discussed in this post.
Estimated 2010 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (This is a count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Projected 2020 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (A count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Numeric Change 2010-2020 or "New Jobs:" Most occupations are expected grow by 2020 as employers  create new positions or "new jobs."
Percent Change 2010-2020: The percent increase or decrease in employment over the decade. This information helps us compare the rate of change across jobs of different sizes.
Job Openings 2010-2020: Job opportunities arise in two ways: when employers create new jobs and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects how many people will be retiring from each occupation over the decade and combines this with the number of new jobs to predict how many "job openings" will become available. Even shrinking occupations have job openings because employers  need to replace some of the people who retire with new workers
Pathways Overview 
The national system of career clusters divides Hospitality and Tourism into four pathways: Lodging; Recreation, Amusements and Attractions; Restaurants and Food and Beverage Services; and Travel and Tourism.  All of the pathways are expected to grow between 2010 and 2020.
  • Restaurant and Food and Beverage Services is by far the largest pathway in this cluster. It employed 11.7 million workers in 2010 and is expected to grow by about 9 percent, with expectations that it will employ 12.7 million people by 2020.  
  • Restaurant and Food and Beverage Services is also expected to have the most job openings between 2010 and 2020. The BLS projects over 5 million job openings over the next decade, far more than any other pathway.
  • Lodging is expected to be the slowest growing pathway between 2010 and 2020. The pathway employed 4.5 million people in 2010 and is only expected to add 375,000 jobs over the next decade at a growth rate of 8 percent.  
  • The Travel and Tourism pathway includes a miscellaneous collection of small occupations not closely related to each other. Meeting, Convention and Event Planners are projected to increase much faster than average, by more than 40 percent. Interpreters and Translators are also projected to grow rapidly, but only a portion of people in this field actually work in hospitality.  Demand for sports competitors and officials is expected to increase, but these are small occupations that are very difficult to forecast.
  • Recreation, Amusements, and Attractions contains seven gaming occupations, most of which are expected to grow at a slow to moderate pace. The other occupations included here are not closely related to each other. Most are expected to grow moderately or even rapidly for a range of different reasons.

Pathways Employment Overview (in 1000s)

Pathways and Number of Occupations IncludedEmployment 2010Employment 2020New JobsPercent ChangeJob Openings
Lodging (9)4,561.2 4,936.6 375.4 8%1,328.0
Recreation, Amusements and Attractions (17)1,194.4 1,379.8 185.5 16%554.4
Restaurants and Food and Beverage Services (21)11,659.1 12,746.4 1,087.3 9%5,216.6
Travel and Tourism (9)423.9 511.3 87.4 21%176.9
All other (2)25.3 27.9 2.6 10%8.8
Total (58)17,863.9 19,602.0 1,738.2 10%7,284.7

New Jobs and Job Openings
Job opportunities arise when employers create new positions and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects "job openings" for each occupation that arise from the combination of newly created positions and the need to replace workers who retire or leave an occupation for other reasons.

Hospitality and Tourism is projected to add about 1.7 million new jobs through 2020. Over a million of these will be added in the cluster's five largest occupations: Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers (including Fast Food), Janitors and Cleaners, Waiters and Waitresses, Restaurant Cooks, and Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners.

All occupations in this cluster are expected to have job openings. This is true even in occupations that are shrinking, because employers will need to replace at least some of the workers who leave. The BLS projects that there will be over 7 million openings in Hospitality and Tourism through 2020.  Most of these will arise from the need to replace workers who are retiring or leaving their occupations to work elsewhere, as the cluster is expected to add fewer than 2 million new jobs. The occupations expected to have the most openings between 2010 and 2020 are:
  • Waiters and Waitresses
  • Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers
  • Janitors and Cleaners (this doesn't include Maids and Housekeeping),
  • Food Preparation Workers, and 
  • Maids and Housekeeping Workers
The following graph shows the ten occupations expected to have the most job openings between 2010 and 2020.

Some occupations in the Hospitality and Tourism career cluster are expected to lose jobs although each pathway has positive growth overall.  Those occupations expected to be in decline are:
  • Switchboard Operators;
  • Cooks, Fast Food;
  • Food Service Managers;
  • Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers;
  • Gaming Change Persons and Booth Cashiers;
  • Gaming Cage Workers;
  • Motion Picture Projectionists;
  • Chefs and Head Cooks; and
  • Gaming Managers.
Complete Listing
The table below shows the full picture of how occupations in the Hospitality and Tourism cluster are changing between 2010 and 2020.

Employment Projections (in 1000s)
Pathways and Occupations Included
Employment 2010Employment 2020New JobsPercent ChangeJob Openings
Lodging 4,561.2 4,936.6 375.4 8%1,328.0
Baggage Porters and Bellhops46.051.75.712%17.1
Lodging Managers51.455.74.38%18.2
Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service142.5109.3-33.2-23%27.6
First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers226.7228.61.91%33.2
Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers109.1120.211.110%74.7
Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks227.5252.725.211%115.9
Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners1,427.31,538.9111.68%351.9
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners2,310.42,556.8246.411%682.0
Recreation, Amusements and Attractions 1,194.4 1,379.8 185.5 16%554.4
Gaming Managers3.33.60.412%1.0
Gaming Cage Workers15.913.9-2.0-13%3.1
Costume Attendants5.56.10.510%3.7
Museum Technicians and Conservators11.912.70.87%4.1
Motion Picture Projectionists10.49.2-1.1-11%4.4
Slot Supervisors18.920.01.16%4.6
Animal Trainers45.847.31.53%5.9
Gaming Service Workers, All Other12.414.01.613%6.9
Gaming and Sports Book Writers and Runners15.317.21.912%8.4
Gaming Change Persons and Booth Cashiers20.117.6-2.4-12%9.1
Gaming Supervisors36.138.62.57%9.2
Locker Room, Coatroom, and Dressing Room Attendants17.620.22.615%12.7
Entertainment Attendants and Related Workers, All Other37.045.38.323%29.5
Gaming Dealers91.0106.615.517%54.6
Self-Enrichment Education Teachers252.8305.652.821%91.5
Recreation Workers339.1403.464.319%118.6
Amusement and Recreation Attendants261.3298.537.214%187.1
Restaurants and Food and Beverage Services 11,659.1 12,746.4 1,087.3 9%5,216.6
Cooks, Private Household3.64.10.514%1.3
Cooks, All Other21.925.23.315%8.0
Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders38.440.32.05%8.1
Chefs and Head Cooks100.699.8-0.8-1%18.0
Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers, All Other46.443.7-2.7-16%22.9
Cooks, Short Order174.2183.69.45%46.5
Food Service Managers320.6310.0-10.6-3%59.1
Food Servers, Nonrestaurant208.9246.537.618%96.7
Cooks, Fast Food530.4511.4-19.1-4%113.0
Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria405.3455.149.812%136.2
Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers397.0414.717.75%165.4
Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop330.5344.113.64%245.7
First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers801.1879.678.510%248.3
Cooks, Restaurant915.41,033.2117.813%312.9
Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop445.5472.927.46%350.4
Food Preparation Workers813.7897.984.110%377.1
Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food2,682.13,080.1398.015%1,146.5
Waiters and Waitresses2,260.32,456.2195.99%1,324.3
Travel and Tourism 423.9 511.3 87.4 21%176.9
Travel Guides4.25.21.024%2.6
Set and Exhibit Designers11.712.81.210%4.8
Athletes and Sports Competitors16.520.13.622%7.8
Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials19.523.43.920%8.8
Travel Agents82.891.18.310%17.2
Tour Guides and Escorts34.941.26.318%19.6
Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks124.3131.57.26%30.8
Interpreters and Translators58.483.124.642%40.3
Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners71.6102.931.344%45.0
All other25.3 27.9 2.6 10%8.8
Building Cleaning Workers, All Other13.114.11.07%3.4
Designers, All Other12.213.81.613%5.4