Cluster Overview: Expectations for Change, 2010-2020The Hospitality and Tourism cluster is very vulnerable to downturns in the economy. Restaurants, hotels, and leisure experiences are luxuries for many individuals and businesses and one of the first expenses to be cut when times are hard. Employment in the cluster fell significantly in the last recession, though it seems to have begun recovering, and the BLS forecasts that it will see growth across the decade. Nonetheless, those working in the field should be aware that it will be one of the first to experience cutbacks in the next inevitable recession.
This cluster includes large numbers of relatively low skilled, hands-on occupations. At the moment these occupations do not seem to be as vulnerable to changing technology as low skilled occupations in other clusters. Jobs for File Clerks and Bank Tellers, for example, are disappearing because people store files electronically and do banking on the internet, but technology cannot replace Housekeepers, Wait Staff, or Food Preparation Workers, at least not during the next decade.
Even though it is not dramatically affecting employment numbers in these service occupations, technology is making tremendous inroads in Hospitality and Tourism in other ways. It is redefining the kinds of hotel, restaurant, and travel experiences that customers want and the way that these things are marketed. For example, customers today expect internet and business technology services in every hotel and they make booking decisions based on social media not old-style print advertising. Tomorrow's customers will be influenced by new technology that we are not even familiar with today. Those who are entering hospitality management careers will have to be fully conversant with current technology and the possibilities for technological change in order to meet future customer demands. Additionally computerization is reducing opportunities for hotel desk service workers. More interactions with customers can take place online and through kiosks, and as this change takes place fewer front desk workers will be needed.
Projections Data: What the BLS tells us about employment
Every two years the BLS releases new national employment projections for over 700 different occupations. The projections include five important pieces of information discussed in this post.
Estimated 2010 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (This is a count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Projected 2020 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (A count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Numeric Change 2010-2020 or "New Jobs:" Most occupations are expected grow by 2020 as employers create new positions or "new jobs."
Percent Change 2010-2020: The percent increase or decrease in employment over the decade. This information helps us compare the rate of change across jobs of different sizes.
Job Openings 2010-2020: Job opportunities arise in two ways: when employers create new jobs and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects how many people will be retiring from each occupation over the decade and combines this with the number of new jobs to predict how many "job openings" will become available. Even shrinking occupations have job openings because employers need to replace some of the people who retire with new workers
Pathways OverviewThe national system of career clusters divides Hospitality and Tourism into four pathways: Lodging; Recreation, Amusements and Attractions; Restaurants and Food and Beverage Services; and Travel and Tourism. All of the pathways are expected to grow between 2010 and 2020.
- Restaurant and Food and Beverage Services is by far the largest pathway in this cluster. It employed 11.7 million workers in 2010 and is expected to grow by about 9 percent, with expectations that it will employ 12.7 million people by 2020.
- Restaurant and Food and Beverage Services is also expected to have the most job openings between 2010 and 2020. The BLS projects over 5 million job openings over the next decade, far more than any other pathway.
- Lodging is expected to be the slowest growing pathway between 2010 and 2020. The pathway employed 4.5 million people in 2010 and is only expected to add 375,000 jobs over the next decade at a growth rate of 8 percent.
- The Travel and Tourism pathway includes a miscellaneous collection of small occupations not closely related to each other. Meeting, Convention and Event Planners are projected to increase much faster than average, by more than 40 percent. Interpreters and Translators are also projected to grow rapidly, but only a portion of people in this field actually work in hospitality. Demand for sports competitors and officials is expected to increase, but these are small occupations that are very difficult to forecast.
- Recreation, Amusements, and Attractions contains seven gaming occupations, most of which are expected to grow at a slow to moderate pace. The other occupations included here are not closely related to each other. Most are expected to grow moderately or even rapidly for a range of different reasons.
Pathways Employment Overview (in 1000s)
|Pathways and Number of Occupations Included||Employment 2010||Employment 2020||New Jobs||Percent Change||Job Openings|
|Recreation, Amusements and Attractions (17)||1,194.4||1,379.8||185.5||16%||554.4|
|Restaurants and Food and Beverage Services (21)||11,659.1||12,746.4||1,087.3||9%||5,216.6|
|Travel and Tourism (9)||423.9||511.3||87.4||21%||176.9|
|All other (2)||25.3||27.9||2.6||10%||8.8|
New Jobs and Job OpeningsJob opportunities arise when employers create new positions and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects "job openings" for each occupation that arise from the combination of newly created positions and the need to replace workers who retire or leave an occupation for other reasons.
Hospitality and Tourism is projected to add about 1.7 million new jobs through 2020. Over a million of these will be added in the cluster's five largest occupations: Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers (including Fast Food), Janitors and Cleaners, Waiters and Waitresses, Restaurant Cooks, and Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners.
All occupations in this cluster are expected to have job openings. This is true even in occupations that are shrinking, because employers will need to replace at least some of the workers who leave. The BLS projects that there will be over 7 million openings in Hospitality and Tourism through 2020. Most of these will arise from the need to replace workers who are retiring or leaving their occupations to work elsewhere, as the cluster is expected to add fewer than 2 million new jobs. The occupations expected to have the most openings between 2010 and 2020 are:
- Waiters and Waitresses
- Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers
- Janitors and Cleaners (this doesn't include Maids and Housekeeping),
- Food Preparation Workers, and
- Maids and Housekeeping Workers
The following graph shows the ten occupations expected to have the most job openings between 2010 and 2020.
- Switchboard Operators;
- Cooks, Fast Food;
- Food Service Managers;
- Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers;
- Gaming Change Persons and Booth Cashiers;
- Gaming Cage Workers;
- Motion Picture Projectionists;
- Chefs and Head Cooks; and
- Gaming Managers.
The table below shows the full picture of how occupations in the Hospitality and Tourism cluster are changing between 2010 and 2020.
Employment Projections (in 1000s)
Pathways and Occupations Included
|Employment 2010||Employment 2020||New Jobs||Percent Change||Job Openings|
|Baggage Porters and Bellhops||46.0||51.7||5.7||12%||17.1|
|Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service||142.5||109.3||-33.2||-23%||27.6|
|First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers||226.7||228.6||1.9||1%||33.2|
|Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers||109.1||120.2||11.1||10%||74.7|
|Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks||227.5||252.7||25.2||11%||115.9|
|Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners||1,427.3||1,538.9||111.6||8%||351.9|
|Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners||2,310.4||2,556.8||246.4||11%||682.0|
|Recreation, Amusements and Attractions||1,194.4||1,379.8||185.5||16%||554.4|
|Gaming Cage Workers||15.9||13.9||-2.0||-13%||3.1|
|Museum Technicians and Conservators||11.9||12.7||0.8||7%||4.1|
|Motion Picture Projectionists||10.4||9.2||-1.1||-11%||4.4|
|Gaming Service Workers, All Other||12.4||14.0||1.6||13%||6.9|
|Gaming and Sports Book Writers and Runners||15.3||17.2||1.9||12%||8.4|
|Gaming Change Persons and Booth Cashiers||20.1||17.6||-2.4||-12%||9.1|
|Locker Room, Coatroom, and Dressing Room Attendants||17.6||20.2||2.6||15%||12.7|
|Entertainment Attendants and Related Workers, All Other||37.0||45.3||8.3||23%||29.5|
|Self-Enrichment Education Teachers||252.8||305.6||52.8||21%||91.5|
|Amusement and Recreation Attendants||261.3||298.5||37.2||14%||187.1|
|Restaurants and Food and Beverage Services||11,659.1||12,746.4||1,087.3||9%||5,216.6|
|Cooks, Private Household||3.6||4.1||0.5||14%||1.3|
|Cooks, All Other||21.9||25.2||3.3||15%||8.0|
|Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders||38.4||40.3||2.0||5%||8.1|
|Chefs and Head Cooks||100.6||99.8||-0.8||-1%||18.0|
|Food Preparation and Serving Related Workers, All Other||46.4||43.7||-2.7||-16%||22.9|
|Cooks, Short Order||174.2||183.6||9.4||5%||46.5|
|Food Service Managers||320.6||310.0||-10.6||-3%||59.1|
|Food Servers, Nonrestaurant||208.9||246.5||37.6||18%||96.7|
|Cooks, Fast Food||530.4||511.4||-19.1||-4%||113.0|
|Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria||405.3||455.1||49.8||12%||136.2|
|Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers||397.0||414.7||17.7||5%||165.4|
|Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop||330.5||344.1||13.6||4%||245.7|
|First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers||801.1||879.6||78.5||10%||248.3|
|Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, and Coffee Shop||445.5||472.9||27.4||6%||350.4|
|Food Preparation Workers||813.7||897.9||84.1||10%||377.1|
|Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food||2,682.1||3,080.1||398.0||15%||1,146.5|
|Waiters and Waitresses||2,260.3||2,456.2||195.9||9%||1,324.3|
|Travel and Tourism||423.9||511.3||87.4||21%||176.9|
|Set and Exhibit Designers||11.7||12.8||1.2||10%||4.8|
|Athletes and Sports Competitors||16.5||20.1||3.6||22%||7.8|
|Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports Officials||19.5||23.4||3.9||20%||8.8|
|Tour Guides and Escorts||34.9||41.2||6.3||18%||19.6|
|Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks||124.3||131.5||7.2||6%||30.8|
|Interpreters and Translators||58.4||83.1||24.6||42%||40.3|
|Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners||71.6||102.9||31.3||44%||45.0|
|Building Cleaning Workers, All Other||13.1||14.1||1.0||7%||3.4|
|Designers, All Other||12.2||13.8||1.6||13%||5.4|