Monday, May 7, 2012

Employment Projections for Marketing, 2010-2020

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Marketing is a very large career cluster. Employing over 19 million workers, it is second only to Business Management and Administration. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that employment in Marketing occupations will grow by about 13 percent between 2010 and 2020, about the national average rate.

Cluster Overview: Expectation for Change, 2010-2020
The internet and social media revolution is transforming marketing and the world of retail in a multitude of ways, and no obvious endpoint to this transformation is in sight. For example, online shopping, which has been growing steadily, has begun to alter what customers expect from brick and mortar retail storescustomers now expect sales staff to have more product expertise and be able to find products at other store; they also want to be able to research products online even if they eventually shop in person.

These changes will necessarily alter the nature of Marketing occupations and the distribution of employment across the cluster, but it is very difficult to tell what these changes will be from today's vantage point. The BLS hypothesizes that "although consumers are increasing their online retail shopping, they will continue to do most of their retail shopping in stores. Retail salespersons will be needed in stores to help customers and complete sales," and therefore, the BLS projects that employment for Retail Salespersons will grow by 16 percent across the next decade. But if people continue to increase their online shopping, growth may be slower.

Although the turmoil in Marketing makes employment projections difficult for most occupations, it makes it easier in one case: Marketing Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists. As companies scramble to keep up with changing trends, they rely more heavily on these workers, and as the growing internet gives companies increasing amounts of data on their customers and potential customers, they rely on these workers to analyze and make sense of it. The BLS projects that this occupation will grow by 41 percent from 2010 to 2020, and this seems very likely.

Pathways Overview
Projections Data: What the BLS tells us about employment
Every two years the BLS releases new national employment projections for over 700 different occupations. The projections include five important pieces of information discussed in this post.
Estimated 2010 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (This is a count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Projected 2020 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (A count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Numeric Change 2010-2020 or "New Jobs:" Most occupations are expected grow by 2020 as employers  create new positions or "new jobs."
Percent Change 2010-2020: The percent increase or decrease in employment over the decade. This information helps us compare the rate of change across jobs of different sizes.
Job Openings 2010-2020: Job opportunities arise in two ways: when employers create new jobs and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects how many people will be retiring from each occupation over the decade and combines this with the number of new jobs to predict how many "job openings" will become available. Even shrinking occupations have job openings because employers  need to replace some of the people who retire with new workers

The career pathways information currently available for the Marketing cluster is not satisfactory. The national system of career clusters has radically changed the pathways for this cluster, but the crosswalk that matches pathways to BLS occupations has not been updated. I can't project what the new crosswalk will be like until it is finalized, so for this discussion I will group the marketing occupations according to the five categories into which they are classified by the BLS.
  • The BLS group "Sales Occupations" contains 17 Marketing occupations, from retail sales supervisors, to real estate agents and brokers, to telemarketers. These occupations employed almost 14 million workers in 2010 and are projected to grow by 12 percent through 2020. Most of the occupations in this group are expected to grow at about the same pace as the national average, but the lowest skill occupations, such as Cashiers and Telemarketers, are expected to have slower than average growth rates.
  • Marketing-related "Management and Business Occupations" also offer significant employment. This group employed over a million workers in 2010 and is projected to grow by about 20 percent. Within this group, the Marketing Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists are expected to grow rapidly, while other occupations are expected, more or less, to keep pace with the national average.
  • Four "Administrative Support Occupations" were included in Marketing when the cluster was originally designed. Of these, only Customer Service Representatives really have significant involvement in marketing. Employment in this occupation is expected to grow at about the national average pace. 
  • Three "Design Occupations" were included in the original Marketing cluster: Floral Designers, Fashion Designers, and Merchandise Displayers. Average job growth is expected for merchandise displayers, but employment opportunities for Fashion Designers are not projected to grow, and jobs for Floral Designers are expected to decline by nine percent.
  • Three "Transportation Occupations" were included in the original Marketing cluster: Parking Lot Attendants, Automotive and Watercraft Service Attendants, and Driver/Sales Workers. These occupations too are expected to grow at about the national average rate.

Pathways Employment Overview (in 1000s)

Pathways and Number of Occupations Included
Employment 2010Employment 2020New JobsPercent changeJob openings
Administrative Support Occupations (4)
5,427.0
6,275.0
848.0
16%
2,081.8
Design Occupations (3)
179.2
184.7
5.5
3%
67.3
Management and Business Occupations (6)
1,054.9
1,262.0
207.0
20%
502.7
Sales Occupations (17)
13,885.2
15,578.2
1,693.0
12%
6,001.9
Transportation Occupations (3)
618.0
676.9
59.0
10%
207.8
Total
21,164.3
23,976.8
2,812.5
13%
8,861.5

Job Openings and New Jobs

The BLS projects the "job openings" for each occupation that arise from the combination of new jobs and the need to replace workers who retires. Overall, the Sales and Marketing Management and Business occupations tracked by the BLS are expected to have close to 7.5 million job openings between 2010 and 2020. Of those job openings, about 30 percent are expected to be from new jobs created in the industry. The rest will arise when workers leave their occupations or retire.

The occupations expected to have the most job openings are:
  • Retail Salespersons—1,958,700 
  • Cashiers—1,775,900 
  • Customer Service Representatives—959,600 
  • Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing—719,600 
  • First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers—513,700 
The following graph shows the ten occupations expected to have the most job openings in the Marketing cluster.


Complete Listing
The following table gives a complete picture of how occupations in the Marketing cluster are expected to change between 2010 and 2020.

Employment Projections (in 1000s)

Pathways and Occupations IncludedEmployment 2010Employment 2020New JobsPercent ChangeJob openings
Administrative Support Occupations5,427.0 6,275.0 848.0 16%2,081.8
Procurement Clerks76.981.34.45.735.5
Order Clerks212.1227.915.77.475.2
Customer Service Representatives2,187.32,525.6338.415.5959.6
Office Clerks, General2,950.73,440.2489.516.61,011.5
Design Occupations179.2 184.7 5.5 3%67.3
Floral Designers66.560.3-6.2-9.320.6
Fashion Designers21.521.50.00.26.7
Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers91.2102.911.712.840.0
Management and Business Occupations1,054.9 1,262.0 207.0 20%502.7
Purchasing Managers68.072.94.97.225.6
Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products122.0133.011.09.041.7
Sales Managers342.1382.340.111.7139.7
Marketing Managers178.2202.424.213.676.0
Public Relations and Fundraising Managers61.972.110.216.427.9
Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists282.7399.3116.641.2191.8
Sales Occupations13,885.2 15,578.2 1,693.0 12%6,001.9
Door-to-Door Sales Workers, News and Street Vendors, and Related Workers153.8142.3-11.5-7.534.4
First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers422.9440.017.14.0123.5
Cashiers3,362.63,612.8250.27.41,775.9
Telemarketers290.7312.221.57.483.5
Real Estate Brokers98.6106.27.57.629.7
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers1,619.51,755.5136.08.4513.7
Counter and Rental Clerks419.5470.651.112.2146.6
Real Estate Sales Agents367.5412.545.012.2127.6
Advertising Sales Agents160.4181.320.913.069.9
Sales Engineers66.475.99.514.432.1
Models1.41.60.214.50.6
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products1,430.01,653.4223.415.6559.9
Sales and Related Workers, All Other178.9207.628.716.073.9
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products400.0465.565.516.4159.7
Retail Salespersons4,261.64,968.4706.816.61,958.7
Demonstrators and Product Promoters90.1105.815.817.542.1
Sales Representatives, Services, All Other561.3666.6105.318.8270.1
Transportation Occupations618.0 676.9 59.0 10%207.8
Parking Lot Attendants125.1122.9-2.2-1.737.4
Driver/Sales Workers406.6448.542.010.3122.9
Automotive and Watercraft Service Attendants86.3105.519.222.247.5