Monday, May 7, 2012

Employment Projections for Manufacturing, 2010-2020

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The Manufacturing career cluster is projected to grow slowly, by about seven percent, between 2010 and 2020. Even though slow, this growth represents a big change in Manufacturing. This cluster has been losing jobs for decades, and took a huge hit in the recession, but employment has already begun to recover and continued growth is predicted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that employment in occupations in this cluster will grow from about 10.7 million in 2010 to around 11.4 million in 2020. The Manufacturing cluster is expected to create over 720,000 new jobs and have almost 3 million job openings between 2010 and 2020.

Cluster Overview: Expectations for Change
Comparing the occupations that are projected to grow with the occupations that are projected to lose jobs over the next decade helps us understand the overall patterns that underlie change in this cluster. Thirty-six occupations, almost all in the Production pathway, are expected to losing jobs.  Most of these jobs are being lost because of international competition or because improving technology means that these workers are no longer needed to get the job done.

Especially high rates of job loss are predicted for textile and clothing manufacturing occupations. International competition in this arena is fierce. The BLS predicts that American factories will continue to be under intense pressure to cut costs and produce more with fewer workers and many factories will not survive. Dramatic job loss is predicted for these textile occupations:
  • Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders (-53.4%);
  • Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers (-35.6%);
  • Sewing Machine Operators (-25.8%);
  • Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders (-21.8%); and
  • Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders (-18.2%).
Other jobs that are predicted to decline include Semiconductor Processors, Chemical Plant and System Operators, Paper Goods Machine Operators, and Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers. The combination of international competition and improving technology is undercutting these jobs as well.

Job growth is expected in Production jobs, such as Welders and Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators and Programmers, that are based on and take advantage of improving technology.

The Manufacturing cluster also includes a range of Maintenance, Installation, and Repair occupations. These are more likely then Production occupations to grow because they are more difficult to automate. Faster than average growth is expected for:
  • Industrial Machinery Mechanics;
  • Coin, Vending, and Amusement Machine Servicers and Repairers;
  • Radio, Cellular, and Tower Equipment Installers and Repairs;
  • Medical Equipment Repairers; and
  • Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers.



Projections Data: What the BLS tells us about employment
Every two years the BLS releases new national employment projections for over 700 different occupations. The projections include five important pieces of information discussed in this post.
Estimated 2010 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (This is a count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Projected 2020 employment: The estimated number of jobs or positions in each occupation. (A count of positions, not workers; many people have two jobs).
Numeric Change 2010-2020 or "New Jobs:" Most occupations are expected grow by 2020 as employers  create new positions or "new jobs."
Percent Change 2010-2020: The percent increase or decrease in employment over the decade. This information helps us compare the rate of change across jobs of different sizes.
Job Openings 2010-2020: Job opportunities arise in two ways: when employers create new jobs and when workers retire or leave an occupation and need to be replaced by new hires. The BLS projects how many people will be retiring from each occupation over the decade and combines this with the number of new jobs to predict how many "job openings" will become available. Even shrinking occupations have job openings because employers  need to replace some of the people who retire with new workers.
Pathways Overview
The national system of career clusters recently added new pathways to the Manufacturing cluster which was originally divided into just two: Production and Maintenance, Installation, and Repair.  The new system includes six pathways: Production, Manufacturing Production Process Development, Maintenance, Installation, and Repair, Quality Assurance, Logistics and Inventory Control, and Health, Safety, and Environmental Assurance.  Unfortunately, the crosswalk used to match BLS occupations to clusters has not been updated to include the new pathways. Additionally, while the BLS tracks Production and Maintenance, Installation, and Repair Occupations in detail, it contains few occupations exclusively related to the other pathways. Therefore, in this post I will group occupations using the original two pathways.
  • Production employed over 7.5 million people in 2010, and is expected to grow by 4% through 2020.  The pathway is expected to add almost 325,000 new jobs and to have almost 2 million job openings by 2020.  
  • Maintenance, Installation, and Repair is expected to grow 3 times faster than Production.  This pathway is much smaller than Production but is expected to grow by about 12 percent.  Maintenance, Installation, and Repair employed just over 3.2 million people in 2010 and is expected to employ just over 3.6 million in 2020.  Although this pathway is growing more quickly than Production, it is only expected to add about 71,000 more jobs than Production.  In total, the pathway is projected to have over one million job openings by 2020, about 400,000 of which will result from newly created jobs. 
  • Related STEM Occupations. Many scientific and engineering occupations are closely connected to Manufacturing. Most aerospace, electrical, industrial, and materials engineers and technicians, as well as most chemists and materials scientists work for manufacturing firms or for R&D companies that serve manufacturing. These STEM occupations are expected to add about 80,000 jobs through 2020 and to have a growth rate of about six percent.
Pathways Employment Overview (in 1000s)

Pathways and Number of Occupations IncludedEmployment 2010Employment 2020New JobsPercent ChangeJob Openings
Production Pathway (89)
7,505.1
7,829.8
324.7
4%
1,915.6
Maintenance, Installation, and Repair (22)
3,203.9
3,600.2
396.3
12%
1,065.6
Total
10,709
11,430
721
7%
2,981.2
Related STEM Occupations (17)
1,275.0
1,354.3
79.3
6%
390.2

Job Openings and New Jobs
Job openings arise when employers create new positions and when workers retire or leave an occupation and therefore need to be replaced by new hires.  The BLS projects "job openings" for each occupation that arise from the combination of new hires and replacement workers.  In total, the Manufacturing cluster is expected to have approximately 3 million job openings between 2010 and 2020.  Of those, about 720,000 are expected to be from new jobs.  

The Production occupations expected to offer the most new jobs are:
  • Team Assemblers (241,000)
  • Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers (140,700) and
  • Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers (123,900)
In Maintenance, Installation, and Repair the occupations with the most new jobs are: 
  • Maintenance and Repair Workers, General (379,100)
  • First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers (164,900) and
  • Industrial Machinery Mechanics (117.1)
High rates of retirement are predicted for many Manufacturing occupations. These occupations are expected have large numbers of job openings even though they are growing slowly because employers will need to replace the workers who leave. The following graph shows the ten occupations in Manufacturing expected to have the most job openings.



Complete Listing
The following table gives a complete picture of how occupation in Manufacturing are expected to change between 2010 and 2020.
Employment Projections (in 1000s)

Pathways and Occupations IncludedEmployment 2010Employment 2020New JobsPercent ChangeJob Openings
Maintenance, Installation, and Repair Pathway3,203.93,600.2396.312%1,065.6
Fabric Menders, Except Garment0.80.8-0.1-6%0.2
Electrical and Electronics Repairers, Commercial and Industrial Equipment69.169.90.81%17.7
Musical Instrument Repairers and Tuners6.36.40.12%1.8
Medical Appliance Technicians14.214.70.54%5.0
Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers19.820.81.05%2.7
Watch Repairers2.52.70.26%0.8
Maintenance Workers, Machinery69.974.44.57%17.4
Computer, Automated Teller, and Office Machine Repairers146.2155.89.57%45.4
Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks271.0288.917.87%88.8
Precision Instrument and Equipment Repairers, All Other15.016.41.49%5.5
Maintenance and Repair Workers, General1,289.01,431.0142.011%379.1
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All Other143.6160.316.812%43.2
First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers431.2482.651.412%164.9
Electronic Home Entertainment Equipment Installers and Repairers36.841.95.114%14.1
Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers194.9223.328.415%59.3
Locksmiths and Safe Repairers25.730.34.618%9.3
Outdoor Power Equipment and Other Small Engine Mechanics30.135.85.719%13.5
Industrial Machinery Mechanics287.1349.061.922%117.1
Coin, Vending, and Amusement Machine Servicers and Repairers39.147.78.622%16.3
Radio, Cellular, and Tower Equipment Installers and Repairs9.912.82.929%4.5
Medical Equipment Repairers37.949.911.932%22.3
Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers63.884.821.033%36.7
Production Pathway7,505.17,829.8324.74%1,915.6
Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders3.21.5-1.7-53%0.4
Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers6.03.9-2.1-36%0.8
Sewing Machine Operators163.2121.1-42.1-26%8.8
Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders14.911.7-3.3-22%3.5
Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders22.518.4-4.1-18%1.3
Semiconductor Processors21.117.3-3.8-18%5.0
Coil Winders, Tapers, and Finishers15.112.7-2.4-16%2.2
Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders13.911.8-2.1-15%1.9
Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers10.28.8-1.4-14%3.4
Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders29.025.4-3.6-12%3.4
Chemical Plant and System Operators43.338.0-5.3-12%14.1
Textile, Apparel, and Furnishings Workers, All Other16.714.7-2.0-12%1.1
Model Makers, Metal and Plastic6.25.7-0.5-8%0.3
Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators58.754.2-4.5-8%14.7
Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders47.443.8-3.5-8%7.6
Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic22.721.1-1.6-7%1.3
Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders90.985.3-5.5-6%9.0
Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers182.9172.4-10.4-6%26.4
Cutters and Trimmers, Hand17.416.4-1.0-6%3.9
Tire Builders15.514.6-0.9-6%6.5
Sewers, Hand10.49.8-0.6-5%1.4
Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers39.237.1-2.0-5%9.3
Millwrights36.534.8-1.8-5%7.6
Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic41.939.9-2.0-5%15.2
Power Distributors and Dispatchers10.310.0-0.3-3%3.6
Etchers and Engravers10.910.6-0.3-3%0.6
Power Plant Operators40.539.5-1.0-3%14.4
Tool and Die Makers67.766.1-1.5-2%3.5
Mixing and Blending Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders124.6121.9-2.7-2%37.2
Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic4.54.4-0.1-2%0.2
Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators19.419.1-0.3-2%3.9
Extruding/ Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass Fibers14.714.4-0.2-2%2.0
Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders61.461.3-0.10%13.6
Plant and System Operators, All Other11.311.30.00%3.7
Machine Feeders and Offbearers119.4119.60.10%19.0
Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic18.618.80.11%14.8
Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers49.449.80.41%7.5
Cooling and Freezing Equipment Operators and Tenders8.99.00.11%2.2
Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders17.717.90.21%4.4
Furnace, Kiln, Oven, Drier, and Kettle Operators and Tenders20.420.60.21%5.5
Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters1.61.60.01%0.3
Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic72.673.61.01%12.4
Metal Workers and Plastic Workers, All Other26.827.20.42%3.2
Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders65.466.71.22%16.7
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers588.5599.410.92%87.9
Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic183.9188.54.53%18.2
Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic22.523.20.73%5.0
Nuclear Power Reactor Operators5.25.30.24%2.0
Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic20.821.60.74%4.7
Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic70.473.02.74%16.1
Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders337.2350.112.84%68.4
Upholsterers46.948.92.04%14.2
Woodworkers, All Other14.915.50.74%4.3
Pourers and Casters, Metal11.512.00.55%2.7
Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders15.115.70.75%2.8
Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders33.435.11.75%11.7
Molding, Coremaking/Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic115.2121.05.85%25.1
Engine and Other Machine Assemblers33.735.51.85%8.3
Purchasing Agents, Except Wholesale, Retail, and Farm Products284.2299.315.15%91.2
Furniture Finishers20.621.81.16%6.2
Team Assemblers952.61,004.952.36%241.0
Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders83.688.75.16%23.1
Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders41.544.22.77%13.8
Tool Grinders, Filers, and Sharpeners13.114.00.97%2.2
Production Workers, All Other250.4268.117.77%83.2
Grinding and Polishing Workers, Hand27.930.02.18%10.5
Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic43.446.83.58%19.3
Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers416.1449.433.38%123.9
Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic32.234.82.68%8.8
Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic76.582.96.48%20.9
Machinists370.4401.931.59%99.5
Helpers--Production Workers395.1429.534.49%99.8
Industrial Production Managers150.3164.013.79%49.0
Plating and Coating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic31.234.12.99%9.6
Painters, Transportation Equipment46.250.64.49%14.3
Computer Numerically Controlled Machine Tool Programmers, Metal and Plastic16.618.31.811%4.9
Model Makers, Wood1.61.80.211%0.6
Assemblers and Fabricators, All Other254.5283.228.711%79.2
Foundry Mold and Coremakers10.211.31.212%2.9
Weighers, Measurers, Checkers, and Samplers, Recordkeeping66.974.98.012%34.2
Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic8.910.11.214%2.9
Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems Assemblers36.341.55.214%12.2
Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers337.3388.050.715%140.7
Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders15.618.22.516%5.5
Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters97.0113.316.317%40.2
Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers25.329.74.417%9.8
Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic125.1149.024.019%47.8
Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing60.672.912.220%17.4
Boilermakers19.824.04.221%11.8
Related STEM Occupations1,275.01,354.379.36%390.2
Drafters, All Other15.815.2-0.6-4%3.1
Aerospace Engineering and Operations Technicians8.78.5-0.1-2%1.7
Electro-Mechanical Technicians16.416.50.11%3.2
Electrical and Electronics Engineering Technicians151.1154.02.92%31.8
Chemists82.285.43.24%29.9
Mechanical Engineering Technicians44.946.71.84%10.4
Industrial Engineering Technicians62.565.12.64%14.6
Electronics Engineers, Except Computer140.0146.96.85%40.6
Electrical and Electronics Drafters29.230.81.65%7.2
Industrial Engineers203.9217.013.16%57.5
Electrical Engineers154.0164.710.77%47.8
Materials Engineers22.324.21.99%8.1
Mechanical Engineers243.2264.621.39%99.6
Materials Scientists8.79.50.910%3.7
Mechanical Drafters67.474.97.511%20.5
Marine Engineers and Naval Architects5.97.01.018%2.3
Environmental Engineering Technicians18.823.34.624%8.2